LIKELIHOOD
SERIOUSNESS
How much will sea levels rise in the future?
According to existing projections, global mean sea level may rise approximately 0.5 m in 2070, 1m in 2100 and 2-3m in 2300. More than 95% of the ocean surface will be affected and most of the coastlines areas will become vulnerable. Flooding and super storm may occur more frequently, numerous people will have to leave their houses from coastal regions to higher places and inland. |
These visuals show southern US in coming centuries, we can find out the potential process of sea level rise in this region. (Climate Time Machine, NASA)
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Greenland's rapid loss of ice means the rise of sea level will likely reach at least 1 meter by AD 2100 and even higher. (New Scientist 2012) From a 2012 July press released by NASA, we can see Greenland suffered melting in an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface. |
IMMINENCE
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Short-Term Impact
Sea level rise is not just a continuing, long-term process. In fact, researches point out that sudden changes in climatic conditions can cause sudden increases in sea level thru the impact of waves on our shores.
The quicker and quicker sea levels rise, the short term impacts can be devastating on the worlds coastal communities Aggravated El Nino climatic conditions are consequences of global warming. This results in the higher frequency of king tides and large storms amalgamating into conditions of mass destruction and devastation to our coastlines. Preventative and protection measure of the past are not sufficient to cope with the onslaught. Revised mitigation strategies need to be implemented to cope with the changing conditions for protection of our shores in both the short and long term. |
Reference
Benjamin P. Hortona, b, , , Stefan R
ahmstorfc, Simon E. Engelhartd, Andrew C. Kempe. Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quaternary Science Reviews. Volume 84, 15 January 2014, Pages 1–6
Gehrels and Woodworth, 2012. W.R. Gehrels, P.L. Woodworth When did modern rates of sea-level rise start? Global Planet Change, 100 (2012), pp.
Working Group 1, International Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. The Fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change. International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, New York (2013)
J.A. Church, N.J. White A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 (2006), p. L01602
J.A. Church, N.J. White Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century Surv. Geophys., 32 (2011), pp. 585–602
John Abraham Experts say the IPCC underestimated future sea level rise The Guardian. 5 December 2013
John Cook How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century? Skeptical Science July 2015
Jonathan Gregory Projections of sea level rise Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Chapter 13, Sea level change
Dr. Jeff Masters, Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July. Weather Underground, July 25, 2012
M. Meinshausen, S.J. Smith, K. Calvin, J.S. Daniel, M.L.T. Kainuma, J.F. Lamarque, K. Matsumoto, S.A. Montzka, S.C.B. Raper, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, G.J.M. Velders, D.P.P. Vuuren The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 Clim. Change, 109 (2011), pp. 213–241
New Scientist Climate downgrade: Sea level rise New Scientist. Features, Earth 14 November 2012
New Scientist Latest numbers show at least 5 metres sea-level rise locked in. New Scientist. Special Report. 10 June 2015
Robert Monroe Adapting to a Changing Ocean: Preparing for Sea-Level Rise Scripps News. Aug 26, 2014
S. Rahmstorf A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise Science, 315 (2007), pp. 368–370
S. Rahmstorf, G. Foster, A. Cazenave Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011 Environ. Res. Let., 7 (2012), p. 044035
ahmstorfc, Simon E. Engelhartd, Andrew C. Kempe. Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quaternary Science Reviews. Volume 84, 15 January 2014, Pages 1–6
Gehrels and Woodworth, 2012. W.R. Gehrels, P.L. Woodworth When did modern rates of sea-level rise start? Global Planet Change, 100 (2012), pp.
Working Group 1, International Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. The Fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change. International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, New York (2013)
J.A. Church, N.J. White A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 (2006), p. L01602
J.A. Church, N.J. White Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century Surv. Geophys., 32 (2011), pp. 585–602
John Abraham Experts say the IPCC underestimated future sea level rise The Guardian. 5 December 2013
John Cook How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century? Skeptical Science July 2015
Jonathan Gregory Projections of sea level rise Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Chapter 13, Sea level change
Dr. Jeff Masters, Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July. Weather Underground, July 25, 2012
M. Meinshausen, S.J. Smith, K. Calvin, J.S. Daniel, M.L.T. Kainuma, J.F. Lamarque, K. Matsumoto, S.A. Montzka, S.C.B. Raper, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, G.J.M. Velders, D.P.P. Vuuren The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 Clim. Change, 109 (2011), pp. 213–241
New Scientist Climate downgrade: Sea level rise New Scientist. Features, Earth 14 November 2012
New Scientist Latest numbers show at least 5 metres sea-level rise locked in. New Scientist. Special Report. 10 June 2015
Robert Monroe Adapting to a Changing Ocean: Preparing for Sea-Level Rise Scripps News. Aug 26, 2014
S. Rahmstorf A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise Science, 315 (2007), pp. 368–370
S. Rahmstorf, G. Foster, A. Cazenave Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011 Environ. Res. Let., 7 (2012), p. 044035