Global sea level
rise in future is highly dependent on global warming caused by greenhouse gases
emissions, which means the risk can be mitigated for a certain level if we take
actions now. For the adaptation part, we will need the efforts from local
level, like flood protection system and suitable urban planning.
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Based on current researches, we can tell that there is huge uncertainty in projecting future sea level rise, because of the different future global warming predictions. For the high temperature scenario, which RCP is 8.5, sea level is very likely to rise for 0.7-1.2 m by 2100. However, with the mitigated scenario, which RCP is 2.6, the level of rising can be reduced to only 0.4-0.6 m. (IPCC 2013) With similar projections, sea level range will be around 2–3 m by 2300 for the unmitigated scenario with RCP 8.5, in contrast to the 0.6–1.0 m rise for the low temperature scenario with RCP 2.6. (IPCC 2013) |
Figure shows scenarios of global mean surface temperature changes from AD 1900 to AD 2300. The two scenarios are generated from Meinshausen (2011). These temperature projections coincide with the two contrasting greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP3-PD in blue and RCP8 in red) published in the RCP (Moss, 2010 and Meinshausen, 2011). The already observed global mean surface temperature shown as green thin line.
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The scenarios showed in the graph are future sea level rise with contrasting temperature scenarios from 2000 to 2100. The blue color is for RCP 3 and red one for RCP 8.5. We can see there are huge differences between two models.
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To escape from serious damage caused by sea level rise, we will have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions effectively and successfully from now on. Therefore decision makers need to apply appropriate climate mitigation plans for the potential sea level rise by weighing options of risk. |
Reference
A. Parris, P. Bromirsji, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A.H. Sallenger, J. Weiss Global Sea-level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. Parris et al., 2012 NOAA Technical Report National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration December 6, 2012, p. 37 Benjamin P. Hortona, b, , , Stefan Rahmstorfc, Simon E. Engelhartd, Andrew C. Kempe. Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quaternary Science Reviews. Volume 84, 15 January 2014, Pages 1–6 International Panel on Climate Change, 2013. International Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Working Group 1 Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, New York (2013) M. Meinshausen, S.J. Smith, K. Calvin, J.S. Daniel, M.L.T. Kainuma, J.F. Lamarque, K. Matsumoto, S.A. Montzka, S.C.B. Raper, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, G.J.M. Velders, D.P.P. Vuuren The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 Clim. Change, 109 (2011), pp. 213–241 R.H. Moss, J.A. Edmonds, K.A. Hbbard, M.R. Manning, S.K. Rose, D.P. van Vuuren, T.R. Carter, S. Emori, M. Kainuma, T. Kram, G.A. Meehl, J.F.B. Mitchell, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S.J. Smith, R.J. Stouffer, A.M. Thomson, J.P. Weyant, T.J. Wilbanks The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment Nature, 463 (2010), pp. 747–756 Robert Monroe Adapting to a Changing Ocean: Preparing for Sea-Level Rise Scripps News. Aug 26, 2014 |